the_bridge_tank, auteur sur The Bridge Tank

Sustainable Energy transition trajectories in large countries

Posted on 31 July 202113 August 2021 by the_bridge_tank

By Baudouin Becker, Antoine Goutaland, Xieshu Wang, Joël Ruet, Laure Elise Wargnier and Malaurie Le Bail.

The ecological emergency has caused a sharp pressure on policy makers to concentrate their efforts on elaborating public policies to organize the passage from the existing fossil fuels based system, that is unsustainable, to another system, whose contours are unknown in details for the time being, but whose ambition is to be durable. Unlike previous energy transitions that were achieved through industrial investments, the decarbonization of national economies is directly led and orchestrated by public authorities through incentives, constraints and policies. The presented documents are methodologies that aim at assessing the ability of governments to coordinate key actors and systems in order to achieve their climate goals and to identify the structural characteristics of the countries’ ecosystems.

These studies identify trajectories, that we define as the coordination of variables that allow a system to remain balanced while being in motion. A systemic understanding of these trajectories is proposed, including both major responses of public policies to climate issues and the possible integration of the new technologies within the existing system, including an analysis of industrial systems and their capacity (or disability) to meet these challenges.

In order to understand energy transitions across sectors, we have developed a detailed and replicable methodology that fully integrates the role and potential impact of actors (political and industrial). This has enabled us to understand energy transitions in an original way, freeing us from siloed macroeconomic studies and overly specific energy studies that do not allow us to understand the energy stakes as a whole.

In the following documents, you will find this methodology applied to over 20 economies.

The full report : Energy trajectories in main markets

Specific focus : Energy trajectories in main markets

The making of Hydrogen – Definition and acceleration of a sector

Posted on 28 July 202113 August 2021 by the_bridge_tank

By Joël Ruet, Baudouin Becker, Antoine Goutaland and Xieshu Wang.

Hydrogen is a subject in trend and announcements of breakthrough hydrogen technologies have been multiplying in the last couple months. Indeed, it seems hydrogen, as an energy vector similar to electricity, has imposed itself in most government’s eyes as an indispensable tool in order to transition to climate neutral economies by the end of 2050. Indeed, a number of executive bodies have published hydrogen national strategies in the last 15 months, among which notably the EU, the US, France, the Uk, Germany, and many others (even if mostly Europeans so far).

Hydrogen is not a new molecule and has been known and used for decades. Currently, it is mostly utilized as an industrial composite for the production of ammonia, of steel or for refining oil. However, in the context of the energy transition, it is mostly considered useful as an energy vector that would complement electricity. Indeed, in hard-to-abate sectors, meaning sectors where electricity isn’t a solution or an unsatisfactory one, hydrogen appears as a viable replacement to fossil fuels, for example in long-distance transport or shipping where oil is hard to substitute.

These two documents provide an overview of hydrogen developments and increasing importance in the energy transition as well as a prospective analysis of its prospects of evolution towards 2030. It notably identifies an unexpectedly faster pace of development of the molecule. Country that are mostly likely or unlikely to decarbonize their current hydrogen production are also identified. Finally, the documents provide a specific lens on hydrogen use for mobility and on hydrogen ecosystems.

Main report : Main Report – The making of Hydrogen – Definition and acceleration of a sector over 2017-2021

Executive summary : Executive Summary – The making of Hydrogen – Definition and acceleration of a sector over 2017-2021

The current state of the hydrogen ecosystems in the world

Posted on 28 July 202113 August 2021 by the_bridge_tank

By Florian Dommergues and Joël Ruet

Retrospectively, 2021 might well prove to be the breakthrough year for the ecological transition towards climate neutral societies. With the election of Joe Biden, who reinstated the United States in the Paris Agreement hours after coming into office, the ecological transition has gained new momentum.
By the end of 2020, more than 110 countries had pledged to reach climate neutrality by the mid-century, including China by 2060. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has induced an important economic crisis which in response has required the launch of large-scale recovery plans by OECD countries, such as Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue plan, France’s €100 billion recovery plan (of which €30 billion are dedicated to the ecological transition), or the EU’s €1800 billion plan, of which one third is dedicated to the European Green Deal to reach climate neutrality. These plans have been seen as a chance to accelerate further the ecological transition and to invest in the technologies and energies of tomorrow.

In this context, one energy in particular gained particular drive and importance : hydrogen (H2). The aim of this policy brief is therefore to provide an overarching view of the current state of affairs of the hydrogen ecosystem and a review of the existing literature.

We argue that three trends required special attention and allow to have a structured analysis of the field.
First, hydrogen must be approached around the industrial problematics that compose the ecosystems that are emerging around the molecule. One of the decisive dynamic being the interaction between industrial players (both new upcoming players and old industrial fossil fuel players, such as gas utilities) and government public policies which will shape the regulatory environment.
Second, hydrogen in the years to come, will most probably become an object of trade between countries with abundant RES and those with scarcer ones in the years to come. If we analyse these dynamics that notably take the form of bilateral partnerships between states, we argue that for a long time to come hydrogen exports will not take the magnitude nor the forms of standardized transactions, such as oil or natural gas. Indeed, hydrogen cannot be understood as a uniformed commodity, as we stated in a previous policy brief (in french).
Third, the place of green hydrogen in the energy transition must be considered lucidly, what we call a « philosophy of transition ». Hydrogen, if an essential tool of the energy transition, will remain second whenever electrification is possible. It must be considered first and foremost in order to decarbonize industrial uses of hydrogen, then in hard-to-abate sectors and finally as a tool for system integration (providing grid stability and allowing sector coupling).

You can find the full brief here : The current state of play of the hydrogen ecosystems in the world

EU strategic interests vis-à-vis China: our article published in the National Defence Review and published by China Today

Posted on 23 July 202116 December 2021 by the_bridge_tank

As the strategy of European autonomy in the face of Chinese power gathers traction, The Bridge Tank published an issue brief in both the National Defense Review and China Today. An indication that rigorous discussion for a tight negotiation remains possible?

After two years of work, The Bridge Tank has positioned itself in the calibration of the balance of power between the EU and China, in particular by publishing last March issue briefs (For a balance of power – what is at stake around the pre-agreement of principle on investment, co-signed by several former ministers and French ambassadors; and Sino-Western Conflict, analysis and proposals, the latter written by General Eric de la Maisonneuve)

The analyses developed highlight the fact that the two protagonists in their power relations are out of step both in time and space.

The Bridge Tank, active in both Western and Chinese debates, points out the double error of analysis that these two protagonists are making of each other as well as proposals for firm discussions on strategic resources.

This approach was taken up in March 2021 in the “Revue Défense Nationale”, a French strategic and defense reference magazine, an intervention that we then popularized in a high-circulation Chinese-language media, China Today. This bilingual article explicitly analyses the European interests generated by this new partnership with China in conjunction with political, ecological and economic issues.

A degrading context

On Tuesday 4 May 2021, European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis announced the suspension of a landmark EU-China investment agreement. This agreement, which has been under construction for seven years, was concluded on 30 December 2020, but was finally cancelled due to the deteriorating political and business climate between the parties.

What role can the EU play?

This agreement, although met with contempt by some European leaders and the international press, offers crucial benefits for the EU’s economic development. In the context of a new Cold War between China and the United States and the health crisis, Europe wants “to cooperate with China is also to cooperate with the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), the world’s third largest economic bloc, and thus gain access to the ASEAN countries”.

European sovereignty based on an environmental thread

Since signing the Paris Agreement in 2015, the EU has shown itself to be a pioneer in the fight against global warming and for environmental rights. China, one of the world’s largest emitters of CO2 with 28% of global emissions, has declared its goal to reduce its carbon emissions by 2060.

By working with China, this agreement would allow for a more open and direct dialogue on urban innovations, such as smart cities, developed for the benefit of future generations.

In the face of the rise of China and the United States in the digital field, it is clear that Europe needs to catch up to counter the power game in order to guarantee its strategic autonomy.

Read the issue brief (in French) here

US are back on stage: so what for Asia – Symi Symposium’s conversation with George Papandreou, Kevin Rudd and Madeleine Albright

Posted on 16 July 202118 September 2022 by the_bridge_tank

The Bridge Tank’s chairman, Joël Ruet, was a participant and speaker of the 23^rd International Symi Symposium, held on 11-15 July 2021 in Lagonisi, Greece.

He notably took part to the “Balance of power in Asia” conversation session between George Papandreou, f. Prime Minister of Greece and Kevin Rudd, f. Prime Minister of Australia, President and CEO of Asia Society , and the “What an extroverted US means for the world” session, opened with a conversation with Madeleine Albright, f. US State Secretary, led by George Papandreou.

This conversation intriduced a panel discussion in which Joel Ruet was a panelist with Markos Kounalakis, Journalist, author, visiting fellow at Stanford University, second gentleman of California, with Isadora Zubillaga, Ambassador of Venezuelan Interim Government to France, and Mary Kaldor, Director of the Conflict and Civil Society Research Unit, London School of Economics. The Panel was moderated by Mats Karlsson, Advisor Swedish Foreign Ministry, f. Vice President of the World Bank.

To watch Joël Ruet’s intervention at the Symi Symposium, watch here

China’s policy on strategic materials – impact on the batteries ecosystem and industry recommendations

Posted on 15 July 202113 August 2021 by the_bridge_tank

By Xieshu Wang and Joël Ruet.

Strategic materials, such as rare earth, lithium, cobalt or nickel, are indispensable inputs for green transition technologies such as wind turbines or batteries for electric vehicles. With more and more governments aiming to reach climate neutrality by 2050 and as the necessity to transition to sustainable economies is becoming more and more pressing, primary materials’ demand will rise and they are therefore considered critical inputs, or strategic materials. It is expected that consumptions of strategic metals will increase from 7 to 19 billion tons per year, inducing serious tensions on the supply side. Cobalt is one of these metals used as an input in the magnets of wind turbines, and for the production of the cathodes of lithium-ion and nickel metal hybride batteries.

As China quickly understood the importance of the metal for future strategic technologies, it positioned itself early on the cobalt value chain and has therefore been able to control a significant part of the chain, mostly by controlling a large portion of the DRC’s cobalt ressources.

This document provides an analysis of China’s materials strategy, the way it has managed to gain a privileged position on the value chain, as well as an analysis of the key private actors that are major players on the cobalt value chain.

Industry recommendations : Industry Recommendations – China’s key materials strategy

Analytical report : Analytical Report – China’s key materials strategy

Policy Brief – Hydrogen, a new commodity, a ‘magic’ energy carrier, or a prescriber of demanding public policies?

Posted on 7 July 202127 July 2021 by the_bridge_tank

By Antoine Goutaland and Joël Ruet

“Hydrogen” is seeing its industrial and energy uses differ while its synthesis processes abound. But in reality, there are hydrogens whose promoters constitute a heterogeneous club with more or less convergent interests, present at different geographical, sectoral and temporal levels. A unified and stabilised ecosystem does not exist at this stage, and due to the characteristics of the molecule, we defend that this unique and global ecosystem will not be emerge.

Green hydrogen remains a decisive tool for the energy transition. It has the capacity to better store, use, and valorise renewables, and, more generally, offers an additional flexibility option to the great energy systemic overhaul necessary for the ecological transition.

At present, the World Hydrogen Council has an interest in showing a united front to policy makers, in order to broaden the base of what has not, so far, really been a “sector”. But behind this homogeneous ‘narrative’, industrial and political battles are being fought.

Hydrogen will contribute to the slow change in perspective of ecology: in parallel with the systemic question of transitions and trajectories, there will be a return, not of the micro-economic question (price formation on markets), but rather of the macro-economic policy of natural resources, an all-encompassing problem, going from a national accounting of resources to a geostrategy of resources.

Read the Full Brief (in French): 2021-07-07-PB_Hydrogene

Key points

Hydrogen is not a commodity and will probably not become one. However, this by-product can play a key role in the decarbonization of certain heavy industries or energy uses.
Hydrogen is not oil, therefore the previous economic model of this sector is not necessarily adapted to hydrogen. It is consequently necessary to question the assumptions and cognitive habits acquired, as well as to objectively analyse the accelerators at hand, and in particular the territories, that are determining factors.
Hydrogen opens the Pandora’s box of the industrial economy: are forced technological oligopolies coming? Will they overlap or will they transcend geopolitical competition? Will certain coal basins impose themselves by a sort of return of history? Will industrial parks turn demand to their advantage?
The electrification of the world, mobilizing hydrogen, and associated with “natural” uses of hydrogen where electrification is not relevant, is compatible with an explosion of energy transformations, alongside a decrease in CO2 emi

Joël Ruet participates in the 2021 edition of the Horasis Global Meeting

Posted on 7 July 202116 May 2022 by the_bridge_tank

Joël Ruet, President of The Bridge Tank, was one of the speakers at the 2021 edition of the Horasis Global Meeting, an annual meeting of the world’s leading decision makers from business, government and civil society. He intervened during a panel addressing global climate change. He stated that COP26 will be an opportunity to make an assessment of the progress made since the 2015 Paris Agreement. If he expressed optimism concerning the ecological transition in regard of current trends, he highlighted that green finance must be developed further, many projects still being unable to find funds. Joël Ruet called for a strong understanding of the issues at stake by the industries as well as strong coordination organized by governments. His concluding remark was that Africa is now the next frontier to fight climate change.

The panel was moderated by Sherry Roberts. The other panelists were Stephen Brenninkmeijer, Carsten Brinkschulte, Frédéric de Mévius and Nicolas Payen.

Watch his intervention here.

Tribune: The Winners and Losers of the Australian-China Trade War

Posted on 5 July 202116 December 2021 by the_bridge_tank

The current trade war between Australia and China has heavily impacted the position and importance of China’s global trading partners, particularly within the beef and wine industry. Whilst Australia has undoubtedly suffered, other countries such as USA and Brazil are taking this opportunity to fill in the market gap.

The Bridge Tank president Joël Ruet explores the current state of trade and potential new Chinese partnerships incurred by this conflict in his latest article published on the Diplomatic Courrier. Read here

‘China, new Atlantis between the United-States and Europe?’ Joël Ruet deciphers the triangular power-play in his latest article in Euraktiv and The Tribune

Posted on 28 June 202122 July 2021 by the_bridge_tank

There is no longer denying that America, under Biden’s new administration, is preparing to confront the growing presence of China within the global arena by waging what many have called the ‘new Cold War’. Despite growing concerns over what America’s aggressive stance could bring to the future, as echoed by the likes of Bernie Sanders, the China-centric discussions conducted by the American president during the recent series of world summits, from the G7 to NATO, confirm this claim. His recent tour to Europe was essentially a call to arms to his allies, a congregation of democratic powers and values. However, within the friction created by the shifting of these political tectonic states, Europe declines to choose a side, its leaders evoking in response repeatedly the term; “strategic autonomy”. In refusing to align explicitly with either America or China, Europe plans to forge its own destiny; with China’s entry into the Northern Atlantic, the political fabric of the world is being restitched.

This, in short, is the context of Joel Ruët’s recent article published on the website La Tribune, titled: ‘China, the new Atlantis between the United-States and Europe?’. Anchored on the analysis of dialogues that took place over the recent series of world summits, Ruët’s article explores not only the meaning behind Europe’s key phrase: “strategic autonomy”, but also what this strategy entails for its potential partnerships with America and China. Through profound and precise analyses of the events and dialogues which took place over the recent series of summits, Ruët presents crucial observations and outlooks within the tense context of an American-China Cold War 2.0.

Read the article in French here: https://www.latribune.fr/opinions/tribunes/la-chine-nouvelle-atlantide-entre-les-etats-unis-et-l-europe-887357.html

Read the article in English, republished by Euraktiv here: https://www.euractiv.com/section/china/opinion/china-the-new-atlantis-between-the-united-states-and-europe/

Download the PDF version in French here: La Chine, nouvelle Atlantide entre les Etats-Unis et l’Europe