Archives des Global Governance - Page 5 of 16

The Bridge Tank co-organises the conference “Central Asia: between Russian and Chinese covetousness, what place for the European Union? “

Posted on 17 September 20218 October 2021 by the_bridge_tank

On 17 September, a conference on Central Asia “Between Russian and Chinese covetousness, what place for the European Union?” was held at Sciences Po Strasbourg with the support of The Bridge Tank, the Think Tank Paris-Berlin-Moscow, Sciences Po Forum and the Alumni Association of Sciences Po Strasbourg. The aim of this conference was to discuss Central Asia and more specifically to study the Russian, Chinese and European influences in the five Central Asian countries of the former USSR: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, thanks to the expertise and experience of practitioners of international relations and the region.

Among the speakers were Mrs Sylvie Bermann, former French Ambassador to China and Russia and President of the IHEDN Board of Directors, Mr Gilles Rémy, Director of the CIFAL Group, Mr Thierry Kellner, Professor at the Université Libre de Bruxelles and China specialist, Mr Michaël Levystone, Researcher at the Russia/NEI Centre of IFRI and Mrs Malaurie Le Bail from The Bridge Tank.

This event brought together around 150 people: Mr Ivan Soltanovsky, Ambassador, Permanent Representative to the Council of Europe, Mr Anuarbek Akhmetov, Consul General of the Republic of Kazakhstan in Strasbourg, Mr François Loos, Former French Minister, Mr Pierre Andrieu, Former French Ambassador, various experts who have worked in the region and many students.

The Bridge Tank, co-organiser of the event, was represented by analyst Malaurie Le Bail. She deciphered the climate and environmental situation of the region through a scientific reading of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (IDNC) of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan a few weeks before the COP26. According to Malaurie Le Bail, many analyses, both in academic and institutional literature and in the media, highlight Kazakhstan’s climate leadership in the region. However, when comparing the INDC of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, their greenhouse gas reduction targets are almost identical. Her presentation put Kazakhstan’s leadership into perspective and highlighted the way in which the climate ambitions of states should be studied according to the notion of “differentiated common responsibilities”. Malaurie Le Bail suggested two recommendations:

The development of a tool to measure the degree of ambition of a State and to compare the climate ambitions of States with different and/or equal contexts.
The importance of creating a Central Asian climate coalition during the climate negotiations to fight against common environmental problems, such as the lack of water irrigation or desertification.

Finally, Malaurie Le Bail concluded her intervention by presenting a vision of The Bridge Tank on new Silk Roads (BRI – Belt and Road Initiative). The BRI is a Chinese-Chinese solution to a Chinese-Chinese problem and responds to low domestic market demand and high exports of goods, which caused the accumulation of Chinese currency in the years 2000-2010. The BRIs are therefore not an initiative to promote investment but to develop Chinese loans abroad that generate trans-border economic activity. The idea for China, especially for Chinese companies, is to create infrastructure and activities abroad financed by debt to rebalance the domestic economic situation and to develop infrastructure in the western provinces of the country. The Bridge Tank argues for a reading of the BRIs from within China, rather than from simply a regional and global influence perspective. From a Central Asian perspective, the BRIs allow these countries to benefit from the infrastructure and technologies developed and used in this project, but also to integrate a global market and to be at the heart of a strong geopolitical system.

TRT World – The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economies of France and the EU

Posted on 9 August 202127 June 2023 by the_bridge_tank

In July 2021, The Bridge Tank’s President Joel Ruet, economist at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), joined David Foster on Turkish television channel TRT World to discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economies of France and the EU.

Comparing the pandemic to previous crises, e.g. the oil shock of 1973 and the 2008 financial crisis, Mr Ruet contended that the French economy did manage to ride out the pandemic quite well, despite suffering -13% on its quarterly GDP growth rate (compared to -1% in 2008 and -2% in 1973). One of the differences with previous crises is that the pandemic did involve nowhere near the wealth destruction that the global economy suffered during the 2008 financial crisis, Joel Ruet argued.

He also gave credit to France for managing the pandemic well on a macro-economic level. The responses of both the French government and the EU were quite different from those of 2008, as they were much better coordinated, quicker and more extensive.

The measures France unrolled in 2020 to support economic activity during the pandemic accounted for €500 billions. These were divided between real expenditure (i.e. partial unemployment schemes; solidarity fund) and cash flow measures (e.g. deferral of social security contributions and tax payments at the height of the crisis). A second category of measures implemented by France is found in its €100 billion economic recovery plan for 2021-2022.

All these measures were effective in protecting French citizens, as household purchasing power remained the same between 2019 and 2020. In addition to that, the French economy created 41,000 jobs between April and June 2021 – 15% more than the quarterly average observed since 2009. With the majority of French citizens now vaccinated, the most likely scenario remains that of a strong recovery (i.e. 6% growth forecast according to French President Macron), with the European Commission itself expecting a 4.8% growth in the EU and the eurozone this year (forecast of 7 July).

As a conclusion, Joel Ruet also noted that the pandemic created an opportunity for an accelerated green transformation in the EU.

Rewatch the full show:

The making of Hydrogen – Definition and acceleration of a sector

Posted on 28 July 202113 August 2021 by the_bridge_tank

By Joël Ruet, Baudouin Becker, Antoine Goutaland and Xieshu Wang.

Hydrogen is a subject in trend and announcements of breakthrough hydrogen technologies have been multiplying in the last couple months. Indeed, it seems hydrogen, as an energy vector similar to electricity, has imposed itself in most government’s eyes as an indispensable tool in order to transition to climate neutral economies by the end of 2050. Indeed, a number of executive bodies have published hydrogen national strategies in the last 15 months, among which notably the EU, the US, France, the Uk, Germany, and many others (even if mostly Europeans so far).

Hydrogen is not a new molecule and has been known and used for decades. Currently, it is mostly utilized as an industrial composite for the production of ammonia, of steel or for refining oil. However, in the context of the energy transition, it is mostly considered useful as an energy vector that would complement electricity. Indeed, in hard-to-abate sectors, meaning sectors where electricity isn’t a solution or an unsatisfactory one, hydrogen appears as a viable replacement to fossil fuels, for example in long-distance transport or shipping where oil is hard to substitute.

These two documents provide an overview of hydrogen developments and increasing importance in the energy transition as well as a prospective analysis of its prospects of evolution towards 2030. It notably identifies an unexpectedly faster pace of development of the molecule. Country that are mostly likely or unlikely to decarbonize their current hydrogen production are also identified. Finally, the documents provide a specific lens on hydrogen use for mobility and on hydrogen ecosystems.

Main report : Main Report – The making of Hydrogen – Definition and acceleration of a sector over 2017-2021

Executive summary : Executive Summary – The making of Hydrogen – Definition and acceleration of a sector over 2017-2021

EU strategic interests vis-à-vis China: our article published in the National Defence Review and published by China Today

Posted on 23 July 202116 December 2021 by the_bridge_tank

As the strategy of European autonomy in the face of Chinese power gathers traction, The Bridge Tank published an issue brief in both the National Defense Review and China Today. An indication that rigorous discussion for a tight negotiation remains possible?

After two years of work, The Bridge Tank has positioned itself in the calibration of the balance of power between the EU and China, in particular by publishing last March issue briefs (For a balance of power – what is at stake around the pre-agreement of principle on investment, co-signed by several former ministers and French ambassadors; and Sino-Western Conflict, analysis and proposals, the latter written by General Eric de la Maisonneuve)

The analyses developed highlight the fact that the two protagonists in their power relations are out of step both in time and space.

The Bridge Tank, active in both Western and Chinese debates, points out the double error of analysis that these two protagonists are making of each other as well as proposals for firm discussions on strategic resources.

This approach was taken up in March 2021 in the “Revue Défense Nationale”, a French strategic and defense reference magazine, an intervention that we then popularized in a high-circulation Chinese-language media, China Today. This bilingual article explicitly analyses the European interests generated by this new partnership with China in conjunction with political, ecological and economic issues.

A degrading context

On Tuesday 4 May 2021, European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis announced the suspension of a landmark EU-China investment agreement. This agreement, which has been under construction for seven years, was concluded on 30 December 2020, but was finally cancelled due to the deteriorating political and business climate between the parties.

What role can the EU play?

This agreement, although met with contempt by some European leaders and the international press, offers crucial benefits for the EU’s economic development. In the context of a new Cold War between China and the United States and the health crisis, Europe wants “to cooperate with China is also to cooperate with the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), the world’s third largest economic bloc, and thus gain access to the ASEAN countries”.

European sovereignty based on an environmental thread

Since signing the Paris Agreement in 2015, the EU has shown itself to be a pioneer in the fight against global warming and for environmental rights. China, one of the world’s largest emitters of CO2 with 28% of global emissions, has declared its goal to reduce its carbon emissions by 2060.

By working with China, this agreement would allow for a more open and direct dialogue on urban innovations, such as smart cities, developed for the benefit of future generations.

In the face of the rise of China and the United States in the digital field, it is clear that Europe needs to catch up to counter the power game in order to guarantee its strategic autonomy.

Read the issue brief (in French) here

US are back on stage: so what for Asia – Symi Symposium’s conversation with George Papandreou, Kevin Rudd and Madeleine Albright

Posted on 16 July 202118 September 2022 by the_bridge_tank

The Bridge Tank’s chairman, Joël Ruet, was a participant and speaker of the 23^rd International Symi Symposium, held on 11-15 July 2021 in Lagonisi, Greece.

He notably took part to the “Balance of power in Asia” conversation session between George Papandreou, f. Prime Minister of Greece and Kevin Rudd, f. Prime Minister of Australia, President and CEO of Asia Society , and the “What an extroverted US means for the world” session, opened with a conversation with Madeleine Albright, f. US State Secretary, led by George Papandreou.

This conversation intriduced a panel discussion in which Joel Ruet was a panelist with Markos Kounalakis, Journalist, author, visiting fellow at Stanford University, second gentleman of California, with Isadora Zubillaga, Ambassador of Venezuelan Interim Government to France, and Mary Kaldor, Director of the Conflict and Civil Society Research Unit, London School of Economics. The Panel was moderated by Mats Karlsson, Advisor Swedish Foreign Ministry, f. Vice President of the World Bank.

To watch Joël Ruet’s intervention at the Symi Symposium, watch here

China’s policy on strategic materials – impact on the batteries ecosystem and industry recommendations

Posted on 15 July 202113 August 2021 by the_bridge_tank

By Xieshu Wang and Joël Ruet.

Strategic materials, such as rare earth, lithium, cobalt or nickel, are indispensable inputs for green transition technologies such as wind turbines or batteries for electric vehicles. With more and more governments aiming to reach climate neutrality by 2050 and as the necessity to transition to sustainable economies is becoming more and more pressing, primary materials’ demand will rise and they are therefore considered critical inputs, or strategic materials. It is expected that consumptions of strategic metals will increase from 7 to 19 billion tons per year, inducing serious tensions on the supply side. Cobalt is one of these metals used as an input in the magnets of wind turbines, and for the production of the cathodes of lithium-ion and nickel metal hybride batteries.

As China quickly understood the importance of the metal for future strategic technologies, it positioned itself early on the cobalt value chain and has therefore been able to control a significant part of the chain, mostly by controlling a large portion of the DRC’s cobalt ressources.

This document provides an analysis of China’s materials strategy, the way it has managed to gain a privileged position on the value chain, as well as an analysis of the key private actors that are major players on the cobalt value chain.

Industry recommendations : Industry Recommendations – China’s key materials strategy

Analytical report : Analytical Report – China’s key materials strategy

Joël Ruet participates in the 2021 edition of the Horasis Global Meeting

Posted on 7 July 202116 May 2022 by the_bridge_tank

Joël Ruet, President of The Bridge Tank, was one of the speakers at the 2021 edition of the Horasis Global Meeting, an annual meeting of the world’s leading decision makers from business, government and civil society. He intervened during a panel addressing global climate change. He stated that COP26 will be an opportunity to make an assessment of the progress made since the 2015 Paris Agreement. If he expressed optimism concerning the ecological transition in regard of current trends, he highlighted that green finance must be developed further, many projects still being unable to find funds. Joël Ruet called for a strong understanding of the issues at stake by the industries as well as strong coordination organized by governments. His concluding remark was that Africa is now the next frontier to fight climate change.

The panel was moderated by Sherry Roberts. The other panelists were Stephen Brenninkmeijer, Carsten Brinkschulte, Frédéric de Mévius and Nicolas Payen.

Watch his intervention here.

EU-US Summit : towards a new transatlantic partnership ?

Posted on 16 June 202125 June 2021 by Joël Ruet

“America is back” and the Trump years are behind us, as evidenced by the holding of the EU-United States summit in Brussels on June 15, 2021: being the first meeting of this type since 2017, it marked the launch of a renewed partnership and a joint program for cooperation between the EU and the United States, following a sectoral approach. This meeting notably enabled three major commercial achievements to revive and deepen transatlantic trade in a context of Sino-American tensions.

Civil aircraft cooperation agreement closes 17-year dispute

Leaders Joe Biden, Charles Michel, president of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, have committed to creating a cooperative framework for large civil aircraft, taking a major step toward ending the dispute over the sector. After 17 years of dispute between Brussels and Washington before the WTO, this agreement initiates a new transatlantic relationship in the aeronautics sector. At the root of the dispute: illegal subsidies granted to aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing. Under the Trump administration, tensions were exacerbated and the WTO authorized the imposition of taxes on $7.5 billion worth of imported European goods and services, including 25% on wine and 15% on Airbus aircraft.

At the end of the summit, the leaders announced the suspension of punitive tariffs imposed on each other, as part of a five-year truce. The resolution of this dispute, which has plagued bilateral relations, is a strong signal that the Biden administration is moving toward a rapprochement that will create a level playing field and address new industrial challenges.

This search for appeasement reflects an attempt to bring the EU on board in the US tug-of-war with China by strengthening the U.S.-European position. Especially since this former duopoly of aircraft manufacturers is now becoming an oligopoly with the entry of the new Chinese player Comac. This common-sense measure therefore also has the potential to counter the Chinese breakthrough in this sector and to challenge China’s perceived unfair competition practices. The idea is also to set up an effective cooperation model to jointly address other challenges posed by China’s economic model. While it is not certain that a compromise will be reached at the end of this truce, there is a real American will to reach an agreement. Indeed, when the dispute began in 2004, Airbus was gaining ground on the international market to the detriment of Boeing, whereas today the threat comes from China and it is time for unity on both sides of the Atlantic.

Negotiations to resolve steel and aluminum dispute underway

Leaders agreed to begin discussions to resolve the steel and aluminum trade dispute and to lift all additional and punitive tariffs by the end of the year. Ursula von der Leyen announced a working group on this issue that has marred transatlantic relations since Donald Trump announced in 2018 the imposition of taxes of 25% on European steel imports and 10% on aluminum imports, provoking European countermeasures in return.

Lifting these taxes in the spirit of appeasement that prevails today would be a much-awaited political gesture by the EU, which expects strong actions beyond intentions. However, this diplomatic gesture should not change the face of European trade, nor turn the European steel and aluminum market upside down, as prices have risen in an unprecedented manner over the past six months, drowning out the impact of the US taxes.

Moreover, the actual resolution of the conflict is likely to be thorny, as the EU does not have a tariff and trade logic but a border tax logic that is different from the United States. The partnership is not self-evident and leaves the door open to a possible rapprochement with China, whether on the American or European side.

The establishment of an EU-US Trade and Technology Council

It is no longer a question of Europe and the United States entering into a free trade logic, as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership negotiated since 2013 is no longer relevant. However, a Trade and Technology Council will be created to provide a platform for cooperation on trade, investment, technology, digital issues and supply chains. It embodies a willingness to cooperate in developing compatible and international standards and to promote innovation while avoiding unwarranted new trade or technical barriers. It will enable the partners to align on global technology issues, such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, clean technologies… Both sides have already committed to a partnership on rebalancing semiconductor supply chains as a priority.

This third announcement is both the most imprecise and the most structuring for the future of EU-US bilateral relations. At a time when a technological war seems to be underway with China, the issue of technological coordination is central. After a first American and commercial globalization, which was undermined by the Trump years, Biden now has the project of knitting a new one, which will take the form of technological liberalization.

The African diaspora recalled by the continent?

Posted on 15 June 202125 June 2021 by the_bridge_tank

The sustained growth of the last two decades and the two global crises of 2008 (Subprimes) and 2020 (Covid-19) have revealed new challenges on a global scale, which are illustrated in Africa by a sustainable modernisation challenge. The role of the diaspora in accessing international finance is one of the keys to Africa’s challenges. Morocco published this Tuesday, May 25, 2021 its report entitled “The New Development Model, unleashing energies and restoring confidence to accelerate the march towards progress and prosperity for all”.

Read here the french paper : La diaspora africaine rappelée par le continent ?

Contradictory trends on EU-China, relations? The case of industry

Posted on 8 June 202122 June 2021 by the_bridge_tank

The paradoxical observation of deep disagreement and necessary cooperation

Relations between the EU and China are conditioned by a double observation : observation of a deep disagreement on political values, in terms of human rights and democracy, but also observation of the need for the two powers to cooperate on major issues, such as climate, strategic materials or industries of the future.

Such is the Bliken doctrine, with the exception that the US play the confrontational rivalry while the Eu remains more soft spoken.

While the EU is now the largest trading partner and foreign investor in China, a deep and lasting mistrust marks bilateral relations and tends to poison them. Strategic partners and systemic rivals, the EU and China are now reaching a turning point in their relations. Also, the EU must redefine its Chinese policy, between taking an assumed position, pragmatic cooperation, and inevitable negotiations, to get out of the stop and go provoked by these antagonistic tendencies.

Whether it takes the form of a technological, trade or human rights war, a tendency towards confrontation is gaining ground in diplomatic relations between Chinese and Western powers. Rising diplomatic tensions between the EU and China, illustrated by European sanctions over forced labor in Xinjiang province and the subsequent Chinese counter-sanctions, have brought bilateral cooperation to a halt, as demonstrated by the vote of the European Parliament on May 20 in favor of the suspension of negotiations for the ratification of the Agreement on Investment announced in December 2020.

However, the same day, a partnership was announced around battery materials between the German manufacturers BASF and Chinese Shanshan. This twofold topicality testifies to an inconsistency in the European line of conduct towards China. Beyond the apparent incompatibility of the two political systems illustrated by an increasingly less diplomatic tone, a real complementarity of interests between the two parties remains. In fact, the EU and China cannot do without having discussions with each other, if not cooperation, at least an open and pragmatic dialogue on certain issues.

BASF and Shanshan enter into joint venture in battery materials sector

If the light is red in terms of political cooperation with China, Sino-German industrial collaboration is for its part in good shape. The two leaders have embarked on a joint venture serving the Chinese market, the largest in the battery materials sector. For BASF, a leading global supplier of Computer Aided Manufacturing to the automotive industry, this is an opportunity to access the Chinese CAM market, expanding its global footprint with an integrated cathode active materials supply chain and unique. BASF would become the first company to have capacity in all major markets by 2022. For its part, Shanshan, a leading supplier of lithium-ion battery materials serving both the electric mobility market and consumer electronics, would benefit from BASF’s global network of automotive customers to strengthen its competitiveness in the Chinese market.

Thanks to the strong technological and development capabilities with a global footprint of one, and the vast experience of the Chinese market on the other, these two giants, by combining their expertise, will be able to offer incomparable competitiveness in terms of innovation, customer proximity and cost and become one of the world’s leading CAM suppliers. The aim is to generate important technological synergies and accelerate the transformation of the electrification of the transport industry.

The issue of this partnership is central when we consider that China has control over the value chains of strategic materials necessary for the manufacture of batteries, for which it dominates the market and holds around 90% of world production. In addition, China is a key player in the supply chains in key areas of energy transition (solar panels, wind turbines, hydrogen).

What method for a coherent European position?

Between deep political dissension and innovative cooperation on issues of the future, the Sino-European relationship is subject to contradictory trends which seem irreconcilable and prevent the EU from maintaining a unambiguous course of action.

In any case, the Sino-European divorce is not consummated. Beyond the sirens of political rivalries, points of convergence still make it possible today to talk about shared visions of the future. In view of the COP26, it is necessary to establish essential strategic axes towards which to orient Sino-European cooperation. The subject of raw materials, agricultural and mineral, is for example a central point of support for this cooperation, as is the climate or the energy and industrial transition.

The EU will only be able to impose its views if it shows a unanimous and coherent discourse. It should therefore first agree internally on its course of action, then externally by positioning itself according to a flexible method capable of breaking out of permanent stop and go in international relations. Thus, it will be able to hold a precise but firm dialogue in negotiation, redefine demanding and lasting partnerships, respectful of the law, and based on real reciprocity. In short, assume a role of “balancing power”.