By
Alexandra Campmas, Paolo Giudici, Andrea Renda, Joël Ruet.

Ce rapport présente une analyse comparative de l’épidémie de COVID-19 dans dix grands pays européens. Il identifie les pays les plus performants et les moins performants pour aplanir la courbe. Il promeut une nouvelle méthode statistique d’estimation du « taux de reproduction » (connu sous le nom de « R0 ») pour analyser des pays ou des régions spécifiques, afin de mieux cibler les politiques publiques de confinement ou de déconfinement. Il importe en effet d’explorer les pratiques les meilleures, les plus efficaces et les plus sécurisées, alors que nous nous préparons à une éventuelle deuxième vague.

Les critères les plus importants pour aplanir avec succès la courbe ont été les confinements précoces. Cela a eu un effet déterminant sur le «taux de reproduction épidémique» R0. Il subsiste cependant une divergence importante entre les R0 sur lesquels les gouvernements européens fondent leurs décisions publiques de déconfiner et les chiffres présentés dans ce document. Cela signifie que plusieurs pays européens sous-estiment la mesure dans laquelle leurs taux d’infection sont réduits et leurs foyers maîtrisés.

Télécharger le Rapport.

A new report published by the Bridge Tank compares the outbreak of COVID-19 across ten major European countries

This ground-breaking analysis identifies the best and worst performing countries in Europe, and the reasons behind their respective performance in flattening the curve.

Italy, Spain, France, UK, The Netherlands and Belgium are the most severely hit by the outbreak and have struggled to flatten the curve efficiently. This is mostly explained by the delay in implementing proper lockdown and social distancing measures. France could soon overtake Italy, and UK is still witnessing an increase of the number of confirmed cases and deaths.

Greece is the best performing country in Europe, followed by Czechia (The Czech Republic) and Romania. Thanks to early and strict containment measures, they have successfully managed to flatten the curve and slow down the spread of the virus. The contrast between Greece – which suspended public events and closed schools even before the first 100 cases were detected, and Spain – which took similar decisions at a much later stage of the epidemic – is particularly striking.

Germany seems to be an outlier. Though its lockdown measures have been implemented relatively later and not fully, the number of deaths has not reached the levels met by its neighbours but is still progressing quickly in relative terms.

Joel Ruet, Chairman of the Bridge Tank, stated: “In the sea of data about Covid-19, one indicator stands out: the doubling rate of deaths and confirmed cases. It allows to measure how well countries are flattening the curve. With the exception of Germany, we see a strong correlation between an early lockdown and subsequent success in controlling the spread of the virus.”

Read and download the report here.

The Bridge Tank, an independent economic think-tank, is an active member of the T20, the think tank group of the G20. Since the COVID-19 outbreak in China, the members of the Bridge Tank have regularly published on the epidemic and advised numerous governments. The Bridge Tank also mobilised a working group on the future of global health governance to provide recommendations to the UN.

Joel Ruet, Founder and Chairman of The Bridge Tank, is a French economist at CNRS and Ecole Polytechnique. He studied and worked in France, China, India, Senegal and UK. He is a regular commentator on global affairs in international media and speaker at major conferences.

For any media enquiry, please contact: administration@thebridgetank.org